Breeders Cup Betting: Euro Invaders Look Tough in Filly & Mare Turf
The 29th Breeders’ Cup World Championship gets underway on Friday afternoon at Santa Anita Park, a ten race card that includes six of the 15 championship races.
The NBC Sports Network will be providing live coverage of the races in a four-hour telecast that gets underway at 4:00 ET.
The remaining nine Breeders’ Cup races are coming up on Saturday.
Post time for the opening race on the ten race card on Friday is 11:15am PT, and the first Breeders’ Cup race is the $500,000 Juvenile Sprint, which is the fourth race on the card with a post time of 1:06 PT.
One of the best wagering races on the card is the $2 million Filly & Mare Turf (G1), which drew a field of twelve including five that are based overseas.
The 7-2 morning line favorite is The Fugue, who makes her U.S. debut for trainer John Gosden, with William Buick in the irons.
U.S. based runners have fared well in this race, holding a 8-5 edge over the overseas invaders, but this year’s group coming from across the pond look very talented.
The best of the U.S. based contingent is Marketing Mix (9-2), who is coming off a sharp win in the Rodeo Drive (G1), which was her first trip over the Santa Anita turf course.
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Michael’s two day Breeders’ Cup Package includes his selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for every race on the two-day championship event from Santa Anita Park on Nov. 2-3.
The Breeders’ Cup offers 15 championship races over two days, bringing together the best top horses, trainers, and jockeys from around the world, this year to compete at Santa Anita Park.
Play of the day for Friday from the Breeders’ Cup:
Santa Anita Race 8 The BC Filly & Mare Turf G1 (3:48 PT)
4 The Fugue 7-2
10 Ridasiyna 4-1
8 Nahrain 6-1
9 Marketing Mix 9-2
Analysis: The Fugue is one of five in here that are based overseas. Her chances look pretty good after we saw I'm a Dreamer come to the U.S. off a third and a fourth place finish to win the Beverly D. (G1) and Nahrain came to the U.S. off an eighth and a third place finish and won the Flower Bowl (G1). Our top pick is coming off a tough neck loss in the Yorkshire Oaks (G1) to Shareta, who came back to win the Qatar Prix Vermille (G1) in her next outing on Sept. 18 and then ran ninth in the Arc (G1). She will go tomorrow against the boys in the Turf. She is trained by John Gosden, who is 4 for 28 in the BC, his last win coming in the Juvenile Turf with Pounced in 2009. The filly may have gotten to the lead too soon last out and she was caught by Shareta. She drifted out a bit late. She adds blinkers to the mix here and three year olds have done well in this race, with Midday (2009), Ouija Board (2004) and Banks Hill (2001) all beating their elders. U.S. based runners actually hold an 8-5 edge over the overseas invaders in this race, although 2 of the 3 winners at Santa Anita in this race where Euros.
Ridasiyna is also a three year old Euro shipper. She is coming off a win in the Prix de l'Opera Longines (G1) at Longchamp over soft ground at this distance. The filly has now won four of her five career starts, her lone loss coming two back a Deauville here she rallied to get to the lead but could not sustain her run and weakened to finish fifth, beaten two lengths. Her Timeform and Racing Post Ratings put her right in line with our top pick and she still appears to have some upside potential. Her trainer Mikel Delzangels does not show any BC starters. He is one of the top trainers in France and saddled Dunaden to wins in the Melbourne Cup and the Hong Kong Vase.
Nahrain made her U.S. debut a winning one taking the Flower Bowl (G1) at Belmont Park on Sept. 29 over yielding turf. She came into the race winless in three starts and it was looking as if she was not the same filly we saw last year where she came into last year's running of this race undefeated in four starts. She ran well last year at 5-1 in a runner up finish to Perfect Shirl, who returned $57.60 for the win. Last year at Churchill Downs this race was run at 1 3/8 miles and the cut back to 1 1/4 miles here should suit this gal. She is reunited with Frankie Dettori who rode her last year as John Velazquez sticks with Pletcher's In Lingerie, who is making her turf debut here.
Marketing Mix appears to be the best hope for the home team. The filly has won 4 of 6 this year including her career best effort last out winning the Rodeo Drive (G1) over the turf course at Santa Anita. She was a tough luck loser two back in the Beverly D., making a good late rally only to come up a head short of I'm a Dreamer. She has worked sharply since her last outing, with the main question mark here whether she is going to see enough pace in front of her.
WIN: #4 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 4,10 / 4,8,9,10
TRI: 4,10 / 4,8,9,10 / 4,8,9,10,11
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